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LEADER 00000cam a2200925 a 4500
001 806981314
003 OCoLC
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006 m o d
007 cr |n|||||||||
008 120816s2012 nju ob 001 0 eng
010 2012033650
019 867857734
020 9781118515846|q(epub)
020 1118515846|q(epub)
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020 1118515838|q(pdf)
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020 111851582X|q(mobi)
020 9781118515853|q(electronic bk.)
020 1118515854|q(electronic bk.)
020 1118173139
020 9781118173138
020 |q(cloth ;|qalk. paper)
029 1 AU@|b000049848573
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035 (OCoLC)806981314|z(OCoLC)867857734
037 CL0500000355|bSafari Books Online
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082 00 658.4/03
082 00 658.4/03|223
099 eBook O’Reilly for Public Libraries
245 00 Handbook of decision analysis /|cGregory S. Parnell [and
others].|h[O'Reilly electronic resource]
260 Hoboken, New Jersey :|bWiley,|c©2012.
300 1 online resource
336 text|btxt|2rdacontent
337 computer|bc|2rdamedia
338 online resource|bcr|2rdacarrier
504 Includes bibliographical references and index.
505 0 Chapter One. Introduction to Decision Analysis -- Chapter
Two. Decision-Making Challenges -- Chapter Three.
Foundations of Decision Analysis -- Chapter Four. Decision
Analysis Soft Skills -- Chapter Five. Use the Appropriate
Decision Process -- Chapter Six. Frame the Decision
Opportunity -- Chapter Seven. Craft the Decision
Objectives and Value Measures -- Chapter Eight. Design
Creative Alternatives.
505 00 |gChapter One.|tIntroduction to Decision Analysis --|g1.1.
|tIntroduction --|g1.2.|tDecision Analysis Is a Socio-
Technical Process --|g1.3.|tDecision Analysis Applications
--|g1.3.1.|tOil and Gas Decision Analysis Success Story:
Chevron --|g1.3.2.|tPharmaceutical Decision Analysis
Success Story: SmithKline Beecham --|g1.3.3.|tMilitary
Decision Analysis Success Stories --|g1.4.|tDecision
Analysis Practitioners and Professionals --|g1.4.1.
|tEducation and Training --|g1.4.2.|tDecision Analysis
Professional Organizations --|g1.4.3.|tProblem Domain
Professional Societies --|g1.4.4.|tProfessional Service --
|g1.5.|tHandbook Overview and Illustrative Examples --
|g1.5.1.|tRoughneck North American Strategy (RNAS) (by
Eric R. Johnson) --|g1.5.2.|tGeneptin Personalized
Medicine for Breast Cancer (by Sean Xinghua Hu) --|g1.5.3.
|tData Center Location and IT Portfolio (by Gregory S.
Parnell and Terry A. Bresnick) --|g1.6.|tSummary --
|gChapter Two.|tDecision-Making Challenges --|g2.1.
|tIntroduction --|g2.2.|tHuman Decision Making --|g2.3.
|tDecision-Making Challenges --|g2.4.|tOrganizational
Decision Processes --|g2.4.1.|tCulture --|g2.4.2.|tImpact
of Stakeholders --|g2.4.3.|tDecision Level (Strategic,
Operational, and Tactical) --|g2.5.|tCredible Problem
Domain Knowledge --|g2.5.1.|tDispersion of Knowledge --
|g2.5.2.|tTechnical Knowledge: Essential for Credibility -
-|g2.5.3.|tBusiness Knowledge: Essential for Success --
|g2.5.4.|tRole of Experts --|g2.5.5.|tLimitations of
Experts --|g2.6.|tBehavioral Decision Analysis Insights --
|g2.6.1.|tDecision Traps and Barriers --|g2.6.2.
|tCognitive Biases --|g2.7.|tTwo Anecdotes: Long-Term
Success and a Temporary Success of Supporting the Human
Decision-Making Process --|g2.8.|tSetting the Human
Decision-Making Context for the Illustrative Example
Problems --|g2.8.1.|tRoughneck North American Strategy (by
Eric R. Johnson) --|g2.8.2.|tGeneptin Personalized
Medicine (by Sean Xinghua Hu) --|g2.8.3.|tData Center
Decision Problem (by Gregory S. Parnell) --|g2.9.|tSummary
--|gChapter Three.|tFoundations of Decision Analysis --
|g3.1.|tIntroduction --|g3.2.|tBrief History of the
Foundations of Decision Analysis --|g3.3.|tFive Rules:
Theoretical Foundation of Decision Analysis --|g3.4.
|tScope of Decision Analysis --|g3.5.|tTaxonomy of
Decision Analysis Practice --|g3.5.1.|tTerminology --
|g3.5.2.|tTaxonomy Division: Single or Multiple Objectives
--|g3.5.3.|tSingle-Objective Decision Analysis --|g3.5.4.
|tMultiple-Objective Decision Analysis --|g3.5.5.
|tTaxonomy Division: Addressing Value Trade-Offs and Risk
Preference Separately or Together? --|g3.5.6.|tTaxonomy
Division: Nonmonetary or Monetary Value Metric? --|g3.5.7.
|tTaxonomy Division: Degree of Simplicity in
Multidimensional Value Function --|g3.6.|tValue-Focused
Thinking --|g3.6.1.|tFour Major VFT Ideas --|g3.6.2.|tThe
Benefits of VFT --|g3.7.|tSummary --|gChapter Four.
|tDecision Analysis Soft Skills --|g4.1.|tIntroduction --
|g4.2.|tThinking Strategically --|g4.3.|tLeading Decision
Analysis Teams --|g4.4.|tManaging Decision Analysis
Projects --|g4.5.|tResearching --|g4.6.|tInterviewing
Individuals --|g4.6.1.|tBefore the Interview --|g4.6.2.
|tSchedule/Reschedule the Interview --|g4.6.3.|tDuring the
Interview --|g4.6.4.|tAfter the Interview --|g4.7.
|tConducting Surveys --|g4.7.1.|tPreparing an Effective
Survey: Determine the Goals, Survey Respondents, and Means
of Distributing and Collecting Survey Data --|g4.7.2.
|tExecuting a Survey Instrument: Developing the Survey
Questions, Testing, and Distributing the Survey --|g4.8.
|tFacilitating Groups --|g4.8.1.|tFacilitation Basics --
|g4.8.2.|tGroup Processes --|g4.8.3.|tFocus Groups --
|g4.9.|tAggregating across Experts --|g4.10.
|tCommunicating Analysis Insights --|g4.11.|tSummary --
|gChapter Five.|tUse the Appropriate Decision Process --
|g5.1.|tIntroduction --|g5.2.|tWhat Is a Good Decision? --
|g5.2.1.|tDecision Quality --|g5.2.2.|tThe Six Elements of
Decision Quality --|g5.2.3.|tIntuitive versus Deliberative
Decision Making --|g5.3.|tSelecting the Appropriate
Decision Process --|g5.3.1.|tTailoring the Decision
Process to the Decision --|g5.3.2.|tTwo Best Practice
Decision Processes --|g5.3.3.|tTwo Flawed Decision
Processes --|g5.4.|tDecision Processes in Illustrative
Examples --|g5.4.1.|tRoughneck North American Oil Strategy
--|g5.4.2.|tGeneptin Personalized Medicine --|g5.4.3.
|tData Center --|g5.5.|tOrganizational Decision Quality --
|g5.6.|tDecision Maker's Bill of Rights --|g5.7.|tSummary.
505 00 |gChapter Six.|tFrame the Decision Opportunity --|g6.1.
|tIntroduction --|g6.2.|tDeclaring a Decision --|g6.3.
|tWhat Is a Good Decision Frame? --|g6.4.|tAchieving a
Good Decision Frame --|g6.4.1.|tVision Statement --
|g6.4.2.|tIssue Raising --|g6.4.3.|tCategorization of
Issues --|g6.4.4.|tDecision Hierarchy --|g6.4.5.|tValues
and Trade-Offs --|g6.4.6.|tInitial Influence Diagram --
|g6.4.7.|tDecision Schedule and Logistics --|g6.5.
|tFraming the Decision Opportunities for the Illustrative
Examples --|g6.5.1.|tRoughneck North American Strategy
(RNAS) --|g6.5.2.|tGeneptin Personalized Medicine --
|g6.5.3.|tData Center Decision --|g6.6.|tSummary --
|gChapter Seven.|tCraft the Decision Objectives and Value
Measures --|g7.1.|tIntroduction --|g7.2.|tShareholder and
Stakeholder Value --|g7.2.1.|tPrivate Company Example --
|g7.2.2.|tGovernment Agency Example --|g7.3.|tChallenges
in Identifying Objectives --|g7.4.|tIdentifying the
Decision Objectives --|g7.4.1.|tQuestions to Help Identify
Decision Objectives --|g7.4.2.|tHow to Get Answers to the
Questions --|g7.5.|tThe Financial or Cost Objective --
|g7.5.1.|tFinancial Objectives for Private Companies --
|g7.5.2.|tCost Objective for Public Organizations --|g7.6.
|tDeveloping Value Measures --|g7.7.|tStructuring Multiple
Objectives --|g7.7.1.|tValue Hierarchies --|g7.7.2.
|tTechniques for Developing Value Hierarchies --|g7.7.3.
|tValue Hierarchy Best Practices --|g7.7.4.|tCautions
about Cost and Risk Objectives --|g7.8.|tIllustrative
Examples --|g7.8.1.|tRoughneck North American Strategy (by
Eric R. Johnson) --|g7.8.2.|tGeneptin (by Sean Xinghua Hu)
--|g7.8.3.|tData Center Location (by Gregory S. Parnell) -
-|g7.9.|tSummary --|gChapter Eight.|tDesign Creative
Alternatives --|g8.1.|tIntroduction --|g8.2.
|tCharacteristics of a Good Set of Alternatives --|g8.3.
|tObstacles to Creating a Good Set of Alternatives --
|g8.4.|tThe Expansive Phase of Creating Alternatives --
|g8.5.|tThe Reductive Phase of Creating Alternatives --
|g8.6.|tImproving the Set of Alternatives --|g8.7.
|tIllustrative Examples --|g8.7.1.|tRoughneck North
American Strategy (by Eric R. Johnson) --|g8.7.2.
|tGeneptin Personalized Medicine (by Sean Xinghua Hu) --
|g8.7.3.|tData Center Location (by Gregory S. Parnell) --
|g8.8.|tSummary --|g9.1.|tIntroduction --|g9.2.|tPlanning
the Model: Influence Diagrams --|g9.3.|tSpreadsheet
Software as the Modeling Platform --|g9.4.|tGuidelines for
Building a Spreadsheet Decision Model --|g9.4.1.|tKeep
Inputs Separated from Calculations --|g9.4.2.
|tParameterize Everything --|g9.4.3.|tUse Range Names for
Readability --|g9.4.4.|tUse Uniform Indexing for Rows and
Columns of a Sheet --|g9.4.5.|tManage the Model
Configurations --|g9.5.|tOrganization of a Spreadsheet
Decision Model --|g9.5.1.|tValue Components --|g9.5.2.
|tDecisions --|g9.5.3.|tUncertainties --|g9.5.4.|tBusiness
Units --|g9.5.5.|tTime --|g9.5.6.|tRepresentation of
Business Units, Value Components, and Time: P & L
Calculation Sheet(s) --|g9.5.7.|tInputs Sheet(s) --|g9.6.
|tSpreadsheet Model for the RNAS Illustrative Example --
|g9.6.1.|tSelectors --|g9.6.2.|tInputs and Strategy Table
Sheets --|g9.6.3.|tCalculations Sheets --|g9.7.|tDebugging
the Model --|g9.8.|tDeterministic Analysis --|g9.8.1.
|tSources of Value --|g9.8.2.|tDeterministic Sensitivity
Analysis --|g9.8.3.|tScenario Analysis --|g9.9.
|tDeterministic Modeling Using Monetary Multidimensional
Value Functions (Approach 1B) --|g9.10.|tDeterministic
Modeling Using Nonmonetary Multidimensional Value
Functions (Approach 1A) --|g9.10.1.|tThe Additive Value
Function --|g9.10.2.|tSingle-Dimensional Value Functions -
-|g9.10.3.|tSwing Weights --|g9.10.4.|tSwing Weight Matrix
--|g9.10.5.|tScoring the Alternatives --|g9.10.6.
|tDeterministic Analysis --|g9.11.|tIllustrative Examples
--|g9.11.1.|tGeneptin --|g9.11.2.|tData Center Location --
|g9.12.|tSummary.
505 00 |g10.1.|tIntroduction --|g10.2.|tStructure the Problem in
an Influence Diagram --|g10.3.|tElicit and Document
Assessments --|g10.3.1.|tHeuristics and Biases --|g10.3.2.
|tReference Events --|g10.3.3.|tAssessment Protocol --
|g10.3.4.|tAssessing a Continuous Distribution --|g10.3.5.
|tConditioning Cases --|g10.3.6.|tThe Reluctant Expert --
|g10.4.|tIllustrative Examples --|g10.4.1.|tGeneptin --
|g10.5.|tSummary --|g11.1.|tIntroduction --|g11.2.
|tExploration of Uncertainty: Decision Trees and
Simulation --|g11.2.1.|tDecision Trees --|g11.2.2.
|tSimulation --|g11.2.3.|tChoosing between Monte Carlo
Simulation and Decision Trees --|g11.2.4.|tSoftware for
Simulation and Decision Trees --|g11.3.|tThe Value
Dialogue --|g11.3.1.|tP & L Browsers --|g11.3.2.|tTotal
Value and Value Components --|g11.3.3.|tCash Flow over
Time --|g11.3.4.|tDirect EV Tornado Diagram --|g11.3.5.
|tDelta EV Tornado Diagram --|g11.3.6.|tOne-Way and Two-
Way Sensitivity Analysis --|g11.3.7.|tValue of Information
and Value of Control --|g11.3.8.|tReal Options --|g11.3.9.
|tS-Curves (Cumulative Probability Distributions) --
|g11.3.10.|tFlying Bar Charts --|g11.4.|tRisk Attitude --
|g11.4.1.|tDelta Property --|g11.4.2.|tExponential Utility
--|g11.4.3.|tAssessing Risk Tolerance --|g11.4.4.
|tCalculating Certain Equivalents --|g11.4.5.|tEvaluating
"Small" Risks --|g11.4.6.|tGoing Beyond the Delta Property
--|g11.5.|tIllustrative Examples --|g11.5.1.|tGeneptin
Example --|g11.5.2.|tData Center --|g11.6.|tSummary --
|g12.1.|tIntroduction to Portfolio Decision Analysis --
|g12.2.|tSocio-Technical Challenges with Portfolio
Decision Analysis --|g12.3.|tSingle Objective Portfolio
Analysis with Resource Constraints --|g12.3.1.
|tCharacteristics of Portfolio Optimization --|g12.3.2.
|tGreedy Algorithm Using Profitability Index and the
Efficient Frontier --|g12.3.3.|tApplication to Roughneck
North American Strategy Portfolio --|g12.3.4.|tPortfolio
Risk Management --|g12.3.5.|tTrading off Financial Goals
with Other Strategic Goals --|g12.4.|tMultiobjective
Portfolio Analysis with Resource Constraints --|g12.4.1.
|tCharacteristics of Incremental Benefit/Cost Portfolio
Analysis --|g12.4.2.|tAlgorithm for Incremental Benefit/
Cost Portfolio Analysis --|g12.4.3.|tApplication to the
Data Center Portfolio --|g12.4.4.|tComparison with
Portfolio Optimization --|g12.4.5.|tStrengths and
Weaknesses of Incremental Benefit/Cost Portfolio Analysis
--|g12.5.|tSummary --|g13.1.|tIntroduction --|g13.2.
|tDetermining Communication Objectives --|g13.3.
|tCommunicating with Senior Leaders --|g13.4.
|tCommunicating Decision Analysis Results --|g13.4.1.
|tTell the Decision Maker the Key Insights and Not the
Details --|g13.4.2.|tCommunicating Quantitative
Information --|g13.4.3.|tDetermining and Telling the Story
--|g13.4.4.|tBest Practices for Presenting Decision
Analysis Results --|g13.4.5.|tBest Practices for Written
Decision Analysis Results --|g13.5.|tCommunicating
Insights in the Illustrative Examples --|g13.5.1.
|tRoughneck North America Strategy (by Eric R. Johnson) --
|g13.5.2.|tGeneptin (by Sean Xinghua Hu) --|g13.5.3.|tData
Center Location (by Gregory S. Parnell) --|g13.6.|tSummary
--|g14.1.|tIntroduction --|g14.2.|tBarriers to Involving
Decision Implementers --|g14.3.|tInvolving Decision
Implementers in the Decision Process --|g14.4.|tUsing
Decision Analysis for Decision and Strategy Implementation
--|g14.4.1.|tUsing the Decision Model for Decision
Implementation --|g14.4.2.|tUsing Decision Analysis Models
to Support Decision Implementation --|g14.4.3.|tUsing
Decision Analysis to Assess Strategy Implementation --
|g14.5.|tIllustrative Examples --|g14.5.1.|tRNAS (by Eric
R. Johnson) --|g14.5.2.|tData Center (by Gregory S.
Parnell) --|g14.6.|tSummary --|g15.1.|tOverview --|g15.2.
|tDecision Analysis Helps Answer Important Decision-Making
Questions --|g15.3.|tThe Purpose of Decision Analysis Is
to Create Value for Shareholders and Stakeholders --
|g15.3.1.|tSingle Objective Value --|g15.3.2.|tMultiple
Objective Value --|g15.3.3.|tIt Is Important to
Distinguish Potential Value and Implemented Value --
|g15.4.|tDecision Analysis Is a Socio-Technical Process --
|g15.4.1.|tSocial --|g15.4.2.|tTechnical --|g15.5.
|tDecision Analysts Need Decision-Making Knowledge and
Soft Skills --|g15.5.1.|tDecision Analysts Need to
Understand Decision-Making Challenges --|g15.5.2.
|tDecision Analysts Must Develop Their Soft Skills --
|g15.6.|tThe Decision Analysis Process Must Be Tailored to
the Decision and the Organization --|g15.6.1.|tDecision
Quality --|g15.6.2.|tDecision Conferencing --|g15.6.3.
|tDialogue Decision Process --|g15.7.|tDecision Analysis
Offers Powerful Analytic Tools to Support Decision Making
--|g15.7.1.|tPortfolio Resource Allocation --|g15.8.
|tConclusion.
520 "Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing
complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple
objectives, yet most training materials on the subject
overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in
the field. This unique resource fills this gap in the
decision analysis literature and features both soft
personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical
skills involving mathematics and modeling. Readers will
learn how to identify and overcome the numerous challenges
of decision making, choose the appropriate decision
process, lead and manage teams, and create value for their
organization"--EBL.
588 0 Print version record and CIP data provided by publisher.
590 O'Reilly|bO'Reilly Online Learning: Academic/Public
Library Edition
650 0 Decision making.
650 2 Decision Making
650 6 Prise de décision.
650 7 decision making.|2aat
650 7 Decision making|2fast
700 1 Parnell, Gregory S.
776 08 |iPrint version:|tHandbook of decision analysis.|dHoboken,
N.J. : John Wiley & Sons, ©2012|z9781118173138|w(DLC)
2012032884
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