LEADER 00000cam  2200397Ii 4500 
001    sky272801831 
003    SKY 
005    20150312111157.0 
008    150126s2015    nyua     b    001 0 eng d 
020    9780143125082 (pbk.) 
020    0143125087 (pbk.) 
035    (OCoLC)902999990 
040    CDX|erda|cCDX|dOCLCO|dAPL|dUtOrBLW 
082 04 519.5/42|223 
092    519.542|bSIL 
100 1  Silver, Nate,|d1978-|eauthor. 
245 14 The signal and the noise :|bwhy so many predictions fail--
       but some don't /|cNate Silver. 
246 30 Why so many predictions fail-- but some don't 
250    Paperback edition. 
264  1 New York :|bPenguin Books,|c2015. 
300    xvii, 536 pages :|billustrations ;|c22 cm 
336    text|btxt|2rdacontent. 
337    unmediated|bn|2rdamedia. 
338    volume|bnc|2rdacarrier. 
500    Originally published: 2012. 
500    "Published with a new preface in Penguin Books 2015." 
504    Includes bibliographical references (pages [459]-515) and 
       index. 
505 0  A catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter 
       than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and 
       L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green
       -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three 
       feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less 
       wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- 
       If you can't beat 'em-- -- A climate of healthy skepticism
       -- What you don't know can hurt you. 
520    The author has built an innovative system for predicting 
       baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a
       hair's breadth, and has become a national sensation as a 
       blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, he 
       examines the world of prediction. 
650  0 Forecasting. 
650  0 Forecasting|xMethodology. 
650  0 Forecasting|xHistory. 
650  0 Bayesian statistical decision theory. 
650  0 Knowledge, Theory of.