| Description |
xvii, 536 pages : illustrations ; 22 cm |
| Note |
Originally published: 2012. |
|
"Published with a new preface in Penguin Books 2015." |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages [459]-515) and index. |
| Summary |
The author has built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and has become a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, he examines the world of prediction. |
| Contents |
A catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em-- -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you. |
| Subject |
Forecasting.
|
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Forecasting -- Methodology.
|
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Forecasting -- History.
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Bayesian statistical decision theory.
|
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Knowledge, Theory of.
|
| Added Title |
Why so many predictions fail-- but some don't |
| ISBN |
9780143125082 (pbk.) |
|
0143125087 (pbk.) |
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