| Description |
1 online resource (xxii, 392 pages) : illustrations |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 371-381) and index. |
| Contents |
The flaw of averages -- The fall of the algebraic curtain and rise of the flaw of averages -- Mitigating the flaw of averages -- The Wright brothers versus the wrong brothers -- The most important instrument in the cockpit -- MINDles are to MINDs what HANDles are to HANDs -- Mindle 1: uncertainty versus risk -- Mindle 2: an uncertain number is a shape -- Mindle 3: combinations of uncertain numbers -- I come to bury Sigma, not to praise it -- Mindle 4: Terri Dial and the drunk in the road -- Who was Jensen and why wasn't he equal? -- Mindle 5: interrelated uncertainties -- Decision trees -- The value of information -- The seven deadly sins of averaging -- The flaw of extremes -- Simpson's paradox -- The Scholtes revenue fallacy -- Taking credit for chance occurrences -- Your retirement portfolio -- The birth of portfolio theory: the age of covariance -- When Harry met Bill(y) -- Mindles for the financial planning client -- Options: profiting from uncertainty -- When Fischer and Myron met Bob: options theory -- Prices, probabilities, and predictions -- Holistic versus hole-istic -- Real portfolios at shell -- Real options -- Some gratuitous inflammatory remarks on the accounting industry -- The DNA of supply chains -- A supply chain of DNA -- Cawlfield's Principle -- The statistical research group of World War II -- Probability and the war on terror -- The flaw of averages and climate change -- The flaw of averages in health care -- Sex and the central limit theorem -- The end of statistics as you were taught it -- Visualization -- Interactive simulation: a new lightbulb -- Scenario libraries: the power grid -- The fundamental identity of SLURP algebra -- Putting it into practice -- The CPO: managing probability management -- A posthumous visit by my father. |
| Summary |
As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal effectively with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on these kinds of uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, next year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. |
| Subject |
Risk.
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Uncertainty.
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Decision making.
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Risk |
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Decision Making |
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Risque. |
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Incertitude. |
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Prise de décision. |
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decision making. |
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Decision making |
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Risk |
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Uncertainty |
| Other Form: |
Print version: Savage, Sam L., 1944- Flaw of averages. Hoboken, N.J. : Wiley, ©2009 9780471381976 (DLC) 2008052144 (OCoLC)277196683 |
| ISBN |
9780470488119 (electronic bk. ; Adobe Digital Editions) |
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0470488115 (electronic bk. ; Adobe Digital Editions) |
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9780470488126 (electronic bk. ; Adobe Digital Editions) |
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0470488123 (electronic bk. ; Adobe Digital Editions) |
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9780470488560 (electronic bk. ; Mobipocket Reader) |
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0470488565 (electronic bk. ; Mobipocket Reader) |
|
9781118373576 |
|
111837357X |
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(cloth) |
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(cloth) |
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(pbk.) |
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(pbk.) |
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