LEADER 00000nim a22004455a 4500 
003    MWT 
005    20210401104915.1 
006    m     o  h         
007    sz zunnnnnuned 
007    cr nnannnuuuua 
008    210326s2020    xxunnn es      i  n eng d 
020    9781980076322 (sound recording : hoopla Audio Book) 
020    1980076324 (sound recording : hoopla Audio Book) 
029    https://d2snwnmzyr8jue.cloudfront.net/
       rbd_9781980076322_180.jpeg 
028 42 MWT13507122 
037    13507122|bMidwest Tape, LLC|nhttp://www.midwesttapes.com 
040    Midwest|erda 
099    eAudiobook hoopla 
099    eAudiobook hoopla 
100 1  Kay, John. 
245 10 Radical uncertainty :|bdecision-making beyond the numbers
       |h[Hoopla electronic resource] /|cJohn Kay and Mervyn 
       King. 
250    Unabridged. 
264  1 [United States] :|bRecorded Books, Inc.,|c2020. 
264  2 |bMade available through hoopla 
300    1 online resource (1 audio file (15hr., 50 min.)) :
       |bdigital. 
336    spoken word|bspw|2rdacontent 
337    computer|bc|2rdamedia 
338    online resource|bcr|2rdacarrier 
344    digital|hdigital recording|2rda 
347    data file|2rda 
506    Digital content provided by hoopla. 
511 0  Narrated by Roger Davis. 
520    Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two 
       leading experts in this essential book. Invented numbers 
       offer false security; we need instead robust narratives 
       that yield the confidence to manage uncertainty. Some 
       uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industrys 
       actuarial tables and the gamblers roulette wheel both 
       yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations 
       in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a 
       radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no 
       useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty 
       concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently 
       understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting 
       possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful 
       decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered 
       him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin 
       Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one
       not least Steve Jobs knew what a smartphone was; how could
       anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And 
       financial advisers who confidently provide the information
       required in the standard retirement planning package what 
       will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of
       health be in 2050?demonstrate only that their advice is 
       worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power 
       of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most 
       critical decisions there can be no forecasts or 
       probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely.
       Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our 
       knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and 
       personal strategies that will be robust to alternative 
       futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the 
       security of such a robust and resilient reference 
       narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the 
       source of creativity, excitement, and profit. 
538    Mode of access: World Wide Web. 
650  0 Business. 
700 1  King, Mervyn. 
700 1  Davis, Roger.|4nrt 
710 2  hoopla digital. 
856 40 |uhttps://www.hoopladigital.com/title/
       13507122?utm_source=MARC|zInstantly available on hoopla. 
856 42 |zCover image|uhttps://d2snwnmzyr8jue.cloudfront.net/
       rbd_9781980076322_180.jpeg