| Description |
1 online resource |
| Series |
Wiley & SAS business series
|
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references and index. |
| Summary |
Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting. Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template ... |
| Contents |
Machine generated contents note: Effective Decision Making: Characterize the Data -- Growth: How Is the Economy Doing Overall? -- Personal Consumption -- Gross Private Domestic Investment -- Government Purchases -- Net Exports of Goods and Services -- Real Final Sales and Gross Domestic Purchases -- Labor Market: Always a Core Issue -- Establishment Survey -- Data Revision: A Special Consideration -- Household Survey -- Marrying the Labor Market Indicators Together -- Jobless Claims -- Inflation -- Consumer Price Index: A Society's Inflation Benchmark -- Producer Price Index -- Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator: The Inflation Benchmark for Monetary Policy -- Interest Rates: Price of Credit -- Dollar and Exchange Rates: The United States in a Global Economy -- Corporate Profits -- Summary -- Profitability Ratios -- Summary -- Why Characterize a Time Series? -- How to Characterize a Time Series -- Application: Judging Economic Volatility -- Summary -- Important Test Statistics in Identifying Statistically Significant Relationships -- Simple Econometric Techniques to Determine a Statistical Relationship -- Advanced Econometric Techniques to Determine a Statistical Relationship -- Summary -- Additional Reading -- Tips for SAS Users -- DATA Step -- PROC Step -- Summary -- Testing a Unit Root in a Time Series: A Case Study of the U.S. CPI -- Identifying a Structural Change in a Time Series -- Application of the HP Filter -- Application: Benchmarking the Housing Bust, Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers -- Summary -- Useful Tips for an Applied Time Series Analysis -- Converting a Dataset from One Frequency to Another -- Application: Did the Great Recession Alter Credit Benchmarks? -- Summary -- Commandment 1: Know What You Are Forecasting -- Commandment 2: Understand the Purpose of Forecasting -- Commandment 3: Acknowledge the Cost of the Forecast Error -- Commandment 4: Rationalize the Forecast Horizon -- Commandment 5: Understand the Choice of Variables -- Commandment 6: Rationalize the Forecasting Model Used -- Commandment 7: Know How to Present the Results -- Commandment 8: Know How to Decipher the Forecast Results -- Commandment 9: Understand the Importance of Recursive Methods -- Commandment 10: Understand Forecasting Models Evolve over Time -- Summary -- Unconditional (Atheoretical) Approach -- Conditional (Theoretical) Approach -- Recession Forecast Using a Probit Model -- Summary -- Importance of the Real-Time Short-Term Forecasting -- Individual Forecast versus Consensus Forecast: Is There an Advantage? -- Econometrics of Real-Time Short-Term Forecasting: The BVAR Approach -- Forecasting in Real Time: Issues Related to the Data and the Model Selection -- Case Study: WFC versus Bloomberg -- Summary -- Appendix 11A: List of Variables -- Unconditional Long-Term Forecasting: The BVAR Model -- BVAR Model with Housing Starts -- Model without Oil Price Shock -- Model with Oil Price Shock -- Summary -- Risks to Short-Term Forecasting: There Is No Magic Bullet -- Risks of Long-Term Forecasting: Black Swan versus a Group of Black Swans -- Model-Based Forecasting and the Great Recession/Financial Crisis: Worst-Case Scenario versus Panic -- Summary -- Benchmarking Economic Growth -- Industrial Production: Another Case of Stationary Behavior -- Employment: Jobs in the Twenty-First Century -- Inflation -- Interest Rates -- Imbalances between Bond Yields and Equity Earnings -- Note of Caution on Patterns of Interest Rates -- Business Credit: Patterns Reminiscent of Cyclical Recovery -- Profits -- Financial Market Volatility: Assessing Risk -- Dollar -- Economic Policy: Impact of Fiscal Policy and the Evolution of the U.S. Economy -- Long-Term Deficit Bias and Its Economic Implications -- Summary. |
| Subject |
Economic forecasting.
|
|
Business forecasting.
|
|
Decision making.
|
|
Econometrics.
|
|
Decision Making |
|
Prévision économique. |
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Prévision commerciale. |
|
Prise de décision. |
|
Économétrie. |
|
decision making. |
|
Business forecasting |
|
Decision making |
|
Econometrics |
|
Economic forecasting |
| Other Form: |
Print version: Silvia, John. Economic and business forecasting. Hoboken, New Jersey : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., [2014] 9781118497098 (DLC) 2013039764 |
| ISBN |
9781118569801 (electronic bk.) |
|
1118569806 (electronic bk.) |
|
9781118569542 (electronic bk.) |
|
1118569547 (electronic bk.) |
|
(cloth) |
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